Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 8.412754e-05 0.000100 0.000117 0.000137 0.000158 0.000182 0.000208
2025-01-12 5.990876e-05 0.000080 0.000104 0.000132 0.000165 0.000203 0.000248
2025-01-19 4.999000e-05 0.000072 0.000100 0.000134 0.000175 0.000223 0.000281
2025-01-26 3.817446e-05 0.000061 0.000090 0.000128 0.000176 0.000232 0.000304
2025-02-02 3.254426e-05 0.000056 0.000087 0.000129 0.000184 0.000249 0.000333
2025-02-09 2.685111e-05 0.000050 0.000083 0.000128 0.000189 0.000263 0.000359
2025-02-16 2.406864e-05 0.000048 0.000083 0.000133 0.000200 0.000284 0.000394
2025-02-23 2.076492e-05 0.000045 0.000081 0.000134 0.000207 0.000300 0.000423
2025-03-02 1.632095e-05 0.000039 0.000074 0.000129 0.000205 0.000303 0.000436
2025-03-09 1.304245e-05 0.000034 0.000069 0.000125 0.000205 0.000310 0.000452
2025-03-16 1.083382e-05 0.000031 0.000067 0.000124 0.000208 0.000320 0.000473
2025-03-23 9.221391e-06 0.000029 0.000065 0.000125 0.000213 0.000333 0.000498
2025-03-30 7.188824e-06 0.000026 0.000062 0.000123 0.000217 0.000344 0.000523
2025-04-06 5.168189e-06 0.000022 0.000057 0.000119 0.000216 0.000351 0.000542
2025-04-13 4.192683e-06 0.000020 0.000056 0.000121 0.000223 0.000367 0.000574
2025-04-20 2.788866e-06 0.000017 0.000051 0.000115 0.000220 0.000370 0.000587
2025-04-27 2.192391e-06 0.000016 0.000050 0.000116 0.000227 0.000386 0.000618
2025-05-04 1.581415e-06 0.000014 0.000047 0.000116 0.000230 0.000397 0.000643
2025-05-11 1.338122e-06 0.000014 0.000048 0.000120 0.000241 0.000420 0.000683
2025-05-18 1.015656e-06 0.000013 0.000047 0.000121 0.000248 0.000436 0.000716
2025-05-25 5.659809e-07 0.000010 0.000043 0.000116 0.000244 0.000437 0.000726
2025-06-01 3.083491e-07 0.000009 0.000040 0.000112 0.000243 0.000441 0.000742
2025-06-08 1.753127e-07 0.000008 0.000038 0.000112 0.000246 0.000452 0.000766